SiouxLand

Both Fort Peck and Garrison Reservoirs are expected to begin the runoff season less than one foot above their annual flood control pool levels. Due to the need to make adjustments to releases at the reservoirs in December to avoid ice jams, the Corps did not evacuate as much water as was initially anticipated from the two reservoirs during the month of December.

Ice jams are a legitimate concern. But when is the last time the Missouri has flooded during the dead of winter because of ice jams post-Pick Sloan Plan?

If nothing else, the headline belies that fact or at least the very strong supposition that the Corps knew 2011 was not going to be business as usual on the Muddy Mo. The following is almost prophetic of what actually happened:

We are currently monitoring snow conditions on the plains, which are similar to the above-normal conditions we saw in both 2009 and 2010, said Jody Farhat, Chief of the Water Management Division. Mountain snowpack is running ahead of last year, but the big unknown is the rainfall. Last year’s high runoff in the Missouri River basin and resulting flooding was due in large part to widespread heavy rains. (Emphasis added.)

So as of February 8, 2011 the Corps knew or expected these things: 1. Above normal snowfall on the plains. 2. Mountain snowpack running higher than 2010. 3. The Corps obviously can’t predict rainfall but that they have noted the possibility of heavy rains. And 4. The Corps knew from 2010 that heavy rains could cause flooding again in 2011.

Again, going back to the 2010-11 Management Plan, where does the Corps account for these possibilities?

One argument that some flood victims and politicians on the Right have put forth is that managing the dams for the benefit of some species of fishes and birds is the culprit that played a significant role in the spring and summer’s flooding. Putting that argument aside for analysis later, it appears the Corps was aware that the lower Missouri either did not need a “pulse” to help the pallid sturgeon spawn or that there was simply too much water that had to be released.

As the Corps noted in early April:

Runoff from snow and ice that accumulated during the winter months brought more than double the normal volume of runoff into the Missouri River reservoirs during the month of March, prompting the Corps to begin evacuating surplus water from the system.

“We currently have more than 5.5 million acre feet of floodwater stored in the reservoir system and more on its way due to the melt of the remainder of the plains snowpack and above normal mountain snowpack,” said Jody Farhat, Chief of the Water Management Division here. “We have started to evacuate floodwater by increasing releases as tributary flows decline. The increased releases will result in stages roughly 2 feet above normal in the lower Missouri River basin, but well within the channel.”

So, at least as to this individual “pulse,” it appears the Corps did not place critters above people and property. The Corps also, however, was beginning to get a sense of a somewhat unusual situation. So, score one for the Corps, at least in the preliminary analysis.