SiouxLand

Many of the victims of the Great Missouri River Flood of 2011 blame the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for their unprecedented predicament.

As I noted in my first posting on the Corps’ management of the dams on the Missouri River since January 1, 2011, their own operating plan for 2010-11 does not seem to anticipate a massive, let alone, a much above average snowmelt and rainfall in 2011. There does not appear to be a scenario in place that took into account at least the much above snowmelt potential.

On the other hand, unless you are a hydrologist, trying to make sense out of the Corps’ 2010-11 Master Plan is next to impossible. However, the Corps’ own press releases, however, are not as dense. What was the Corps telling the public and when concerning management of the Missouri River in 2011? Let’s go to the press releases, available at http://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/pa/news/home.asp :

1/7/2011

Corps expects to reach intended storage level by start of runoff season

I put this together for my own amusement and not for any group or organization I work for or volunteer for.

The following are excerpts taken from the USACE's Missouri River Mainstem System December 2010 2010-2011 Annual Operating Plan, found at http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/pdfs/finalAOP2010-2011.pdf. You read and be the judge whether the USACE screwed up or not this spring and summer.

From Page 7:

Under all runoff scenarios modeled for the AOP, the March 1 and May 1 System storage is above the Gavins Point spring pulse precludes of 40.0 MAF. The peak magnitude of the March pulse is 5,000 cfs over navigation flows. Based on the technical criteria, the peak magnitude of the May pulse would be 20,000 cfs under the Upper Decile and Upper Quartile runoff scenarios, 16,000 for Median runoff and 12,000 cfs for Lower Quartile and Lower Decile runoff. The actual peak magnitude of the May pulse will be determined based on the actual System storage and the May 1 runoff forecast. The Master Manual technical criteria include safeguards to minimize the risk of flooding associated with the spring pulses. Both spring pulses may be reduced or eliminated due to the downstream flow limits, shown on Plate 3, which are well below the channel capacity of the Missouri River. These flow limits are identical to the most restrictive flood control constraints presented in the previous Master Manual and provide a similar level of flood protection. An additional safeguard is the incorporation of observed and anticipated precipitation into the daily river forecast to provide greater assurance that flows will remain below the downstream flow limits during the duration of the spring pulses. For simulation purposes, the magnitude of the May pulse for Median and above runoff was limited to 10,000 cfs due to the downstream flow limits. Water for the spring pulses will be withdrawn from one or more of the upper three reservoirs and/or Fort Randall depending on releases required to maintain steady to rising pools during the forage fish spawn and other considerations including impacts to historical and cultural sites and the need to evacuate stored flood waters. Prior to implementing the May pulse, the Corps will coordinate with the affected stakeholders. The Corps will also work closely with the USFWS to insure the planned implementation of the spring pulses meet the intent of the 2003 Amended BiOp.

From Pages 14-15:

Gavins Point releases may be quite variable during the 2011 navigation season but are expected to range from 22,000 to 52,000 cfs. Release reductions necessary to minimize downstream flooding are not reflected in the monthly averages shown in the 15 simulations but will be implemented as conditions warrant.

From Page 16:

Oahe Dam. Releases in the spring and summer will back up those from Gavins Point Dam. The pool level should be steady to rising in the spring during the fish spawn under median and above runoff scenarios. Depending on the timing and distribution of runoff, a level or rising pool at Oahe is not likely under the two lower runoff scenarios.

Page 21:

A. Flood Control. All runoff scenarios studied will begin the March 1, 2011 runoff season at the desired 56.8 MAF base of the annual flood control and multiple use zone. Therefore, the entire System flood control zone will be available to store surplus runoff. The System will be available to significantly reduce peak discharges and store a significant volume of water for all floods that may originate above the System. Being at the base of the annual flood control and multiple use zone will also provide full support for all of the other multiple purposes of the System.

Eva Belle James Epp, 82, of Augusta, Kansas, died peacefully in her sleep early Thursday morning after a long illness.

She is survived by her husband, Rodney D. Epp of Augusta; her son Todd D. Epp of Harrisburg, South Dakota; her sisters Virginia Tufte and Sally Glidden of Los Angeles, California; sister Betty Beckley of Ainsworth, Nebraska; daughter in law Donna M. Epp of Harrisburg; and grandchildren Sarah Marie Epp and Matthew Zachariah David Epp of Harrisburg.

Belle, as she preferred to be called, was born December 24, 1927 in Tilden, Nebraska. Her parents were Micah D. James and Sarah “Sally” Elizabeth Bartee James, both Virginia natives who moved to Nebraska just after the turn of the Twentieth Century, where they farmed near Tilden. Belle’s father died when she was only ten years old, leaving a large family for her mother to support during the depths of the Great Depression in dust bowl Nebraska.

Belle graduated from Tilden High School in 1945. One of her classmates was Major League Baseball Hall of Famer Richie Ashburn. After high school, she was involved in a serious car accident and was presumed dead. She broke her pelvis and doctors told her she would never walk again. With the love and encouragement of her mother Sally, Belle was able to walk again, even though her pelvis healed with one side higher than the other. She prided herself on the fact that she could walk without a limp.

After jobs at banks in Tilden and Omaha, Nebraska and also at Western Electric in Omaha, she met Rodney D. Epp of Hampton, Nebraska. They wed May 25, 1958 in Omaha. On December 8, 1958, Belle gave birth to Todd David, their only child.

In 1959, the couple moved to Yankton, South Dakota, where Rodney began his career with Kaneb Pipeline.

While in Yankton, Belle was a devoted mother, tutoring her son in English and writing. She attended nearly every one of Todd’s baseball and basketball games, every swim meet and track meet Todd competed in across the Upper Midwest, and every band concert Todd played in. She often carted a car load of swimmers or basketball players across Yankton or South Dakota to the next game, swim meet, or practice. She was also usually one of the moms who transported Todd and his classmates on field trips and provided snacks as a room mother.

I lost my oldest brother last week, which is strange because I am an only child.

Phil Fleming, who I have known since 1979, died last week from the cancer that destroyed his body and the treatment that was meant to prolong his life.

Most of you don't know who Phil is.  That's ok, I'll tell you about him.

I met Phil at KTWU-TV in Topeka, KS when I was a student reporter there and he was the development director.  He was the funniest person I had ever met, quick with a biting and insightful joke about our station or politics.  He also did a dead-on impression of our station manager, Dr. Dale N. Anderson, which almost made me pee my pants, it was so funny.

But Phil was far more than a cut-up.  Though he spent his career in the rather buttoned down world of public TV and non-profit fundraising and development, he was one of the most free spirited people I have ever met.  One summer in college or as a young man, he decided he was going to be a hermit.  He went to Greece and actually lived in a cave, by himself.  His Thoreau-like experiment turned into drudgery and he gave it up.

But how many people can say they lived in a cave in Greece for any length of time? 

Also in college, Phil decided to drop out.  This was in the midsts of the protests during the Vietnam war and Phil said he was a self-styled hippie.  He went to work at a turkey factory, killing turkeys for your Thanksgiving table.

A rather big man even then, Phil wore white overalls with a big "69" painted on the front, his middle finger to "The Man."  To amuse himself during the mind and soul numbing work, he would picture himself as an executioner.  As a turkey rolled by on the conveyer, he'd say, "Should you live or should you die? I say you shall live!"  Then, he's whap off its head and say, "I'm sorry, I lied."

He said a summer of being a turkey killer was enough to make the burgeouis experience of higher education much more attractive.

And while Phil would ply the boardrooms of corporarations and foundations in Topeka lookiPhing for money for our little PBS station, he was also a sun worshipper.  I mean all of his body worshipped the sun.  Yes, he like to go swimming naked at what he called "The Pool" in Topeka.  There, he and fellow nudists of all genders, shapes, and sizes would swim and sunbathe naked.  Even burned his little fundraiser one day.  Phil invited me to "The Pool" in Topeka many times and I refused.  Now, I wish I had gone, at least once. 

Phil even brought this "hippie" sensibility to fund raising on KTWU.  We had one who night where we all dressed up as hippies or characters from the 1960s and raged against "The Man" during the fund raising breaks.  We had fun.  And we made a crap load of money that night, as our audience responded with their wallets.  This was in 1981 or so.  I've never seen a PBS station do anything like that before or sense.

Phil was able to stradle the two worlds of being himself and working for "The Man" and be true to both.

Surprisingly, Phil was a clothes horse.  He probably single handedly kept the Ray Beers mens shop in business.  Phil taught me how to dress like a proper gentleman.  At the least, I gave up leisure suits and clip on ties.  I still have and wear nice silk ties that Phil helped me pick out 30 years ago.

Phil was also my first mentor as a broadcaster.  He worked on my "presence."  He would gently give his cocky know-it-all advice on how to be a better journalist and performer on TV.

Almost immediately upon meeting me in 1979, he started calling me "Dork."  Then I would call him "Dork to Nth Degree" and we'd try to out "Dork" the other in name calling.  We were still doing it up until the last time I talked to him a month or two ago.  Three decades plus of "Dorkiness."

We'd also try to "rank" the other by coming up with the most disgusting thing they could be.  I might say, "You are nothing more than a maggot in a pile of horse manure."  He might respond, "Todd, you are nothing more than a boil ready to pop on a hyena's ass on a hot summer day on the Serengeti."  He always could "out rank" me.

Yes, juvenile, I know.  But I never had a big brother to do this sort of stuff with. 

There's so much more I could say about my friend Phil.  He taught me a lot about life while having fun doing it.  I thought he had another six months the last time I talked to him.  But I guess God needed a big brother of his own in heaven to make him laugh.

Thanks Phil for being my friend and "big brother."

I pretty much nailed it yesterday in my statistical analysis that Mike "The Heat" Huether would defeat Kermit "Dr. No" Staggers.

It wasn't even close:

VOTES PERCENT

   PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 58) 58  100.00
   REGISTERED VOTERS - TOTAL 91,720
   BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL      32,272
   VOTER TURNOUT - TOTAL          35.19

    Mayor
          Vote for  1
           Kermit L. Staggers  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    13,968   43.34
           Mike Huether  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    18,264   56.66
              Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        13
             Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        27

I did go the wrong way on the voter turnout. I predicted a 4% drop off and instead there was an increase of 1.5% to 35%.  So I missed the turnout by a ways which reduced my "Win Number" significantly.  I said the Win Number was about 13,000 votes.  The actual Win Number was 16,137 votes, so I was 3,000 votes off, which is not so good.

But I did say The Heat would likely win comfortably.  He did, by 13%, which is a landslide.

Not bad for a political newcomer, a banker, a Democrat, and a nice guy!  South Dakota, a political star was born last night.  His name is Mike Huether.